Correction. What correction, did I miss it?

            Seems that almost everyday on CNBC some very knowledge money manager keeps calling for a correction.  After all, we are in the strongest bull market in history.  As we flutter past 17,000 for the Dow, what can we expect?  20,000? 30,000?

            My prediction is we go to 20,000.  Think about it like this, if the Dow hits 20,000, a 25% correction would send it back down to 15,000.  That seems pretty amazing that we are less than 3,000 points away from 20,000 and a 25% correction at that level would bring the market down to 15,000.  Last time I checked, the Dow being at 15,000 is still exceptionally high.  With a 25% correction at 20,000 bringing the Dow down to 15,000, we are still double the pre financial crisis number (around 8,000). 

            Not to mention the NASDAQ has been smoking hot.  Where did this resurgence of old tech come from?  Really did Intel just go from hovering at $22-23 to busting through to almost $35 (Should of held my position at $21)?  Microsoft is getting close to $50 (keep an eye on that) 

            The market is not cheap, but its not on sale anymore is what most experts have been saying.  I agree.  For the last few years, you could of thrown darts at a dartboard and blindly picked ticker symbols based on pure luck, and you’re probably up some 35-45%, especially if you were in biotechnology (love the biotech names).

            Only time will tell where the market goes.  What goes up must come down, however, in my lifetime, every time the market has been destroyed, it has come back harder and stronger.  The market is also more disconnected with society then it ever has been.  If the market reflected the job market and economy, it should be somewhere under 10,000 still.  But big business has adapted, share buybacks are the norm (giant share buybacks mind you), companies are running LEAN (flattening management levels), and dividends are keeping long-term investors in because the yield is very attractive (in the low rate environment). 

            This is the new stock market.  The one that says “Yea, that was bad….but we can handle it”. 

            The Great Depression, the crash in the 80’s, the technology bubble at the turn of the century, 9/11/01, and the financial crisis of 2008, have not stopped the market from making new highs.