Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Hold the Popcorn, What's next for Netflix?

            Who doesn’t like House of Cards?  Netflix’s original programming has been stellar.  Ever since Carl Icahn bought a large stake under $100 a share, it’s been all up hill since then.  I find that Netflix is in a very interesting position currently.   I’m not talking about their stock price (over $400 a share) or their quarterly subscriber growth.  I’m talking about something much bigger, game changing perhaps.

            This week Comcast and Apple were reportedly in talks in a partnership that would put apple into Comcast boxes.  Essentially, it sounds like the “a la carte” ordering may be starting.  Before Steve Jobs passed away, revolutionizing the television industry was his latest and probably most ambitious project.  Why shouldn’t Apple just buy Netflix?    

            What would Netflix’s buyout price be?  Is their one?  Reed Hastings holds Netflix close to him like any parent would a child.  Apple has $73B in current assets (liquid money).  Netflix has a market cap currently of around $22B.  Retained earnings for NFLX are $555M (10X retained earnings only values them at $5.5B).  If Apple were to take in Netflix, they would have a strangle hold on digital streaming.  However, Comcast’s acquisition of NBCUniversal looks more genius everyday.  If they did not buy NBCUniversal, they would control no content.  This is the age of the content wars.  Content is king, just as cash is king.

            Apple has no content.  Apple is the distribution for all content (iTunes), however.  If Apple were to buy Netflix, all they would be getting is another distribution channel.  I would say a better fit for Netflix may be Disney.  Disney owns ABC and ESPN.  They have the content and they have the distribution.  Adding NFLX to the Disney arsenal would be a solid investment. 


            So what is the fate of Netflix, shall they go off quietly into the night, on their own?  Or shall they be bought and taken in by a much larger parent company? 

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